We have demonstrated that it is possible predict the recovery of a hydrophobic value mineral using a complex, fundamentally derived, property-based model. We have applied this model to an operating plant, with a satisfactory outcome. The property-based model allows the relative effects of particle size, particle contact angle and cell hydrodynamics to be discerned. The property-based model may allow more effective benchmarking and optimisation of flotation circuits. Work is currently underway to validate and extend various parts of this model at both laboratory and plant scale. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.