IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Vol.57, No.9, 2250-2265, 2012
Moderate Deviations of a Random Riccati Equation
The paper characterizes the invariant filtering measures resulting from Kalman filtering with intermittent observations in which the observation arrival is modeled as a Bernoulli process with packet arrival probability (gamma) over bar. Our prior work showed that, for (gamma) over bar > 0, the sequence of random conditional error co-variance matrices converges weakly to a unique invariant distribution mu((gamma) over bar). This paper shows that, as (gamma) over bar approaches one, the family {mu((gamma) over bar)}((gamma) over bar >0) satisfies a moderate deviations principle with good rate function I(.): 1) as (gamma) over bar up arrow 1, the family {mu((gamma) over bar)}converges weakly to the Dirac measure delta(P*) concentrated on the fixed point of the associated discrete time Riccati operator; 2) the probability of a rare event (an event bounded away from P*) under mu((gamma) over bar)decays to zero as a power law of (1 - (gamma) over bar) as (gamma) over bar up arrow 1; and, 3) the best power law decay exponent is obtained by solving a deterministic variational problem involving the rate function I(.). For specific scenarios, the paper develops computationally tractable methods that lead to efficient estimates of rare event probabilities under mu((gamma) over bar).
Keywords:Intermittent observations;Kalman filtering;moderate deviation principle (MDP);random Riccati equation (RRE)