To understand the prenucleation stage of methane hydrate formation, we measured methane solubility under metastable conditions using molecular dynamics simulations. Three factors that influence solubility are considered: temperature, pressure, and the strength of the modeled van der Waals attraction between methane and water. Moreover, the naturally formed water cages and methane clusters in the methane solutions are analyzed. We find that both lowering the temperature and increasing the pressure increase methane solubility, but lowering the temperature is more effective than increasing the pressure in promoting hydrate nucleation because the former induces more water cages to form while the latter makes them less prevalent. With an increase in methane solubility, the chance of forming large methane clusters increases, with the distribution of cluster sizes being exponential. The critical solubility, beyond which the metastable solutions spontaneously form hydrate, is estimated to be similar to 0.05 mole fraction in this work, corresponding to the concentration of 1.7 methane molecules/nm(3). This value agrees well with the cage adsorption hypothesis of hydrate nucleation.