This study analyzed how production technology advances and how economic structure reformation affects transition to a hydrogen economy in Taiwan before 2030. A model, called "Taiwan general equilibrium model-energy, for hydrogen (TAIGEM-EH)", was the forecast tool used to consider steam reforming of natural gas, the biodegradation of biomass and water electrolysis using nuclear power or renewable energies of hydrogen production industries. Owing to increase in the prices of oil and concern for global warming effects, hydrogen will have a 10.3% share in 2030 when demands for hydrogen production could be met if strong technological progress in hydrogen production were made. With reformed economic structure and strong support to progress in production technologies, hydrogen's share can reach 22.1% in 2030 and become the dominating energy source from then onwards. In the four scenarios studied, including developing country with three levels of effort and developed country with strong effort, the biohydrogen production industry can become a main supplier of hydrogen in the market if its technological progress can be competitive to other CO(2)-free alternatives. (c) 2007 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.