화학공학소재연구정보센터
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol.39, No.19, 9931-9942, 2014
Biosphere synergism and the humankind virtual path to the hydrogen civilization era
The social synergetic analysis of the biosphere and humanity shows that in near future two attractors (human paths) will really compete: the first is an irreversible biosphere catastrophe and the second is a motion along the vector 'Hydrogen energy -> Hydrogen economy -> Hydrogen civilization'. In accordance with the basic assumption of the social synergetics about a fundamental possibility of the mankind conscious choice of its own post-bifurcation path to the future, the analysis based on Kondratieffs study about large cycles of the economic development leads to the fundamental conclusion: two historical stages of Hydrogen Civilization will correspond to Kondratieffs sixth (similar to 2030-2090) and seventh (similar to 2090-2150) hydrogen energy technological cycles with a probability up to 100%. Copyright (C) 2014, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.