Energy Conversion and Management, Vol.92, 266-274, 2015
Markov Chain model for the stochastic behaviors of wind-direction data
Analyzing the behaviors of wind direction can complement knowledge concerning wind speed and help researchers draw conclusions regarding wind energy potential. Knowledge of the wind's direction enables the wind turbine to be positioned in such a way as to maximize the total amount of captured energy and optimize the wind farms performance. In this paper, first,order and Markov chain models are proposed to describe the probabilistic behaviors of wind-direction data. A case study is conducted using data from Mersing, Malaysia. The wind-direction data are classified according to an eight-state Markov chain based on natural geographical directions. The model's parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the linear programming formulation. Several theoretical arguments regarding the model are also discussed. Finally, limiting probabilities are used to determine a long-run proportion of the wind directions generated. The results explain the dominant direction for Mersing's wind in terms of probability metrics. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:Probability model;Stochastic and probabilistic behaviors;Markov chain;Wind direction;Wind power