China's CO2 emissions have been the focus of attention for domestic and foreign scholars. However, very few articles have analysed whether and how a reduction of China's total CO2 emissions can be achieved. This is of great significance for meeting China's future CO2 emissions reduction targets. Based on input-output decomposition analysis model and dynamic programming approach, this paper analyses the factors affecting China's total carbon emissions and discuss whether and how it could be possible for China to reduce its total CO2 emissions. The results show that carbon intensity is a major driver for the reduction of China's CO2 emissions and that the impact of industry structure on the increment of China's CO2 emissions has changed from positive to negative in recent years. Under the premise of economic growth, carbon intensity decline and industrial structure adjustment should be coordinated. A reduction in the total amount of China's CO2 emissions is difficult to achieve in the short term, but an effective development mode can be selected with some policy implications suggested. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.