Interior insulation is often the only possible post-insulation technique to improve the thermal performance of single leaf masonry walls. As a result of potential damage patterns such as frost damage, interstitial condensation and mould growth however, there is often some reluctance to adopt this technique. To fully exploit the capacity for energy savings offered by interior insulation while avoiding hygrothermal failure, a reliable risk assessment is extremely important. This requires a probabilistic approach, since the uncertainty of all influencing parameters might result in widely varying results. As, so far, no real methodology is available to select the interior insulation system and thickness resulting in the best balance between energy savings and hygrothermal risks, this paper presents a decision tool based on a Monte Carlo analysis. Additionally, the influence of the rain load and some masonry characteristics is discussed. In the study, both vapour tight interior insulation systems and a capillary active insulation system are considered. Overall, vapour tight systems tend to be preferable for structures that are resistant to frost damage. For buildings sensitive to frost damage or when wooden beam ends are present, however, capillary active systems are shifted forward. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.