A model for energy transfer in the collision between an atom and a highly excited target molecule has been developed on the basis of classical mechanics and turning point analysis. The predictions of the model have been tested against the results of trajectory calculations for collisions of five different target molecules with argon or helium under a variety of temperatures, collision energies, and initial rotational levels. The model predicts selected moments of the joint probability distribution, P(J(f),Delta E) with an R-2 approximate to 0.90. The calculation is efficient, in most cases taking less than one CPU-hour. The model provides several insights into the energy transfer process. The joint probability distribution is strongly dependent on rotational energy transfer and conservation laws and less dependent on vibrational energy transfer. There are two mechanisms for rotational excitation, one due to motion normal to the intermolecular potential and one due to motion tangential to it and perpendicular to the line of centers. Energy transfer is found to depend strongly on the intermolecular potential and only weakly on the intramolecular potential. Highly efficient collisions are a natural consequence of the energy transfer and arise due to collisions at "sweet spots" in the space of impact parameter and molecular orientation.