Applied Energy, Vol.178, 496-504, 2016
Impact of fuel price fluctuations on airline stock returns
This paper analyzes the impact of changes in fuel price on the equity returns of airlines associated with International Air Transport Association (IATA), as listed on the stock market. While it is simple to comprehend that airline price stock returns are related to fuel price variations, it is not as simple to establish whether this relationship is direct or indirect. It could be assumed to be indirect given the high influence of fuel price on airline costs. However, when taking into account the market inertia theory and the paradigm that increases in oil price are indicators of economic growth, these relations could also be assumed to be direct. In order to solve this puzzle, 56 airlines were studied, relating their price returns to the price variations of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and Jet Fuel by using GARCH models. The main results show a strong positive influence of fuel price fluctuation on a daily basis. These results support the market inertia theory, confirming the paradigm that increases in oil price are signals of improving economic growth. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.