Forest-derived methane could complement biogas from anaerobic digestion as a transport fuel. The conditions for a systemic transition have been analyzed in this article. The analysis contains three blocks: the vehicle gas development, the policy framework, and commercial projects to produce methane from forest biomass. The results reveal that several conditions for a systemic transition are in place. There is established infrastructure for feedstock supply and biofuels distribution. Infrastructure development is an important albeit not determining factor. Private and public actors have advanced plans for commercial scale plants, technological know-how, and experience from a demonstration plant. However, a major barrier for a systemic transition is the low predictability of Swedish policy instruments. The Swedish government is not free to design policy instruments but must consider compatibility with the EU framework and has changed the energy tax on biofuels several times-to-avoid-overcompensation-according to the EU regulation. This has contributed to the low predictability. The interviewees have suggested several concrete policy instruments. However, they have also emphasized that the exact design of the policy instruments is less important than the predictability of the support.