The end-of-life (EOL) of a lithium ion battery (LIB) is defined as the time point when the LIB can no longer provide sufficient power or energy to accomplish its intended function. Generally, the EOL occurs abruptly when the degradation of a LIB reaches the threshold. Therefore, current prediction methods of EOL by extrapolating the early degradation behavior often result in significant errors. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the reason for the EOL threshold of a LIB with shallow depth of discharge. It is found that the sudden appearance of EOL threshold results from the drift of open circuit voltage (OCV) at the end of both shallow depth and full discharges. Further, a new EOL threshold prediction model with highly improved accuracy is developed based on the OCV drifts and their evolution mechanism, which can effectively avoid the misjudgment of EOL threshold. The accuracy of this EOL threshold prediction model is verified by comparing with experimental results. The EOL threshold prediction model can be applied to other battery chemistry systems and its possible application in electric vehicles is finally discussed. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.