화학공학소재연구정보센터
Energy, Vol.149, 424-437, 2018
Time-varying effects of oil supply and demand shocks on China's macro-economy
In this paper we determine oil supply shock, oil aggregate demand shock, and oil specific demand shock from global crude oil market using a SVAR model. We find that there are great differences in oil supply, oil aggregate demand, and oil specific demand shocks. Furthermore, we develop a TVP-SVAR-SV model based on monthly world crude oil production, global real economic activity index, real oil price, and China's real IAV (or CPI), and apply this model to analyze the time-varying effects of the above-named oil shocks on China's macro-economy. The empirical results show that the effects of oil supply, oil aggregate demand, and oil specific demand shocks on China's output and inflation are time-varying, and even change the direction of the effects over the period from 1995 to 2015. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.