Immobilization of molecular catalysts to electrode surfaces can improve the recyclability and electron transfer rates. The drawback is that most experimental techniques and theoretical methods are not applicable. Here we present results from a study of a ruthenium water oxidation catalyst [(RuO)-O-V(bda)L-2] in explicit water at a carbon nanotube water interface, forming the key O-O bond between two 128 atom catalysts, all fully dynamically. Our methodology is based on a recently developed empirical valence bond (EVB) model. We follow the key steps of the reaction including diffusion of the catalysts at the interface, formation of the prereactive dimer, and the bond formation between the two catalysts. On the basis of the calculated parameters, we compute the turnover frequency (TOF) at the experimental loading, in excellent agreement with the experiments. The key O-O bond formation was significantly retarded at the surface, and limiting components were identified that could be improved by catalyst modification.