The strengths of oxidized SiC fibers were modeled from the effects of SiO2 scale residual stress on fracture. Surface tractions from scale residual stress were determined for SiC surface flaws. The residual stress was the sum of the growth stress from oxidation volume expansion, thermal stress from SiO2-SiC thermal expansion mismatch, and stress from phase transformations in crystallized scale. The partial relaxation of tensile residual stress from scale cracking was also calculated. Scale thicknesses were determined using Deal-Grove oxidation kinetics for glass and crystalline scales. Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (KJMA) kinetics was used to determine scale crystallization rates. Strengths of fibers with glass and with crystalline scales formed by oxidation in dry and wet air between 600 degrees and 1400 degrees C were modeled. The effects of partially crystallized scales were calculated using Weibull statistical methods. Modeled strengths were compared with measurements. Slight strength increases after glass scale formation, large decreases that accompany scale crystallization, and some differences between dry and wet air oxidation were accurately modeled. This suggests that under some conditions the scale residual stress dominates the changes in strength after SiC fiber oxidation. However, modeled strengths were significantly higher than those measured for some fibers oxidized in wet air, which suggests another degradation mechanism is active for these conditions. Modeling assumptions and implications for SiC fiber strength after oxidation for long times are discussed.