Solar Energy, Vol.63, No.5, 283-291, 1998
Multiplicative arma models to generate hourly series of global irradiation
A methodology to generate hourly series of global irradiation is proposed. The only input parameter which is required is the monthly mean value of daily global irradiation, which is available for most locations. The procedure to obtain new series is based on the use of a multiplicative autoregressive moving-average statistical model for time series with regular and seasonal components. The multiplicative nature of this models enables us to capture the two types of relationships observed in recorded hourly series of global irradiation: on the one hand, the relationship between the value at one hour and the value at the previous hour; and on the other hand, the relationship between the value at one hour in one day and the value at the same hour in the previous day. In this paper the main drawback which arises when using these models to generate new series is solved: namely, the need for available recorded series in order to obtain the three parameters contained in the statistical ARMA model which is proposed (autoregressive coefficient, moving-average coefficient and variance of the error term). Specifically, expressions which enable estimatation of these parameters using only monthly mean values of daily global irradiation are proposed in this paper.
Keywords:RADIATION