Real-time conversion estimation through macroscopic balancing was investigated for enzymatic esterification reactions in a solvent-free system. In principle, the conversion of ester synthesis can be determined from the amount of water produced by the reaction because water is formed as a by-product in the same molar ratio as the product. In this study, we show that the water production rate, and thereby the reaction conversion, can be estimated on-line from measurements of the relative humidity of the inlet and outlet air and the material balances of water in the system. In order to test the performance of the real-time conversion estimation method, the lipase-catalyzed esterification reaction of n-capric acid and n-decyl alcohol in solvent-free media was conducted while controlling the water activity at various values. When the reaction conversions estimated on-line were compared with those analyzed off-line by gas chromatography, good agreement was obtained: the average mean absolute error was +/-2.4% of the reaction conversion despite the simplicity of the method. The on-line estimation method presented here requires no expensive or complicated analytical instruments and no sampling of reaction medium. It can be used for monitoring nonaqueous enzymatic reactions where water is produced or consumed during reaction.