The prospect of the UK moving from net exporter to substantial net importer of natural gas over the next decade has caused significant public comment about the potential negative security consequences of this development. In reality, the most important threats to gas security will be a decreasing ability to meet peak demand, and the possibility of UK field, pipeline and terminal failure. There is an increasingly urgent need for a framework within which to analyse: the impact of specific security events, the level of risk attached to such events, and the cost of measures which would provide insurance against them. In the absence of such a framework, statements which project high levels of import dependence and equate these with deteriorating levels of gas security are largely meaningless. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.