In this paper, attempt has been made to develop framework for estimating realistic baseline for carbon emissions from power generation in India till the end of the Eleventh Five Year Plan Period (2010-2011). This is done through development of a realistic generation plan till 2010-2011, taking into account new Greenfield projects, capacity augmentation/addition plans and commissioning schedule or new projects and incorporating the impacts of government imposed norms for energy conservation in baseline estimate. Such a supply side framework for estimation of baselines is useful for developing countries like India where the electricity markets are supply constrained. Also, the paper demonstrates the evaluation of additional emission reductions over and above the business as usual baseline by identification and quantification of future possibilities of changes in specific coal consumption and auxiliary consumption of around 70 existing thermal power plants using data envelopment analysis (DEA). (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.