Aims: Mathematical models were created which predict the growth of spoilage bacteria in response to various preservation systems. Methods and Results: A Box-Behnken design included five variables: pH (2.8, 3.3, 3.8), titratable acidity (0.20%, 0.40%, 0.60%), sugar (8.0, 12.0, 16.0 degrees Brix), sodium benzoate concentration (100, 225, 350 ppm), and potassium sorbate concentration (100, 225, 350 ppm). Duplicate samples were inoculated with a bacterial cocktail (100 mul 50 ml(-1)) consisting of equal proportions of Acinetobacter calcoaceticus and Gluconobacter oxydans (5 x 10(5) cfu ml(-)1 each). Bacteria from the inoculated samples were enumerated on malt extract agar at zero, one, two, four, six, and eight weeks. Conclusions: The pH, titratable acidity, sugar content, sodium benzoate, and potassium sorbate levels were all significant factors in predicting the growth of spoilage bacteria. Significance and Impact of the Study: This beverage spoilage model can be used to predict microbial stability in new beverage product development and potentially reduce the cost and time involved in microbial challenge testing.