This paper describes the results of a French-Lebanese scientific cooperation, between 2001 and 2005, about "Rational use of energy in the residential buildings in Lebanon and adaptation of an energy certification procedure". The aim of this project is to promote the energy efficiency in the existing residential buildings in Lebanon, using an energy certification procedure, and to evaluate the energy certification foresight with prospective methods. The paper first describes an energy investigation in Lebanese residential buildings, and the energy certification procedure. It presents the foresight methodology implemented to identify the key variables and the actors. Finally, the paper exposes the morphological method which allows to elaborate three scenarios of energy performance certification. These scenarios are presented in order to provide a decision making for the actors of the Lebanese energy policy. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.