The U.S. program for the development of direct hydrogen-fueled automotive fuel cell systems has established ambitious performance and cost targets for the 2010 and 2015 time frames. These targets include peak and rated power efficiencies of 60% and 50%, respectively, specific power and power densities of 650We kg(-1) and 650 We L-1, and manufactured costs of $45 and 30 kWe(-1) for 80 kWe(-1) net systems in the 2010 and 2015 systems, respectively. In this paper, we discuss the use of fuel cell system models to examine the performance and projected manufactured costs of 2005 systems and the improvements needed to meet the 2010 and 2015 system level targets. It appears possible to meet most of the 2010 performance targets with advances such as the nano-structured thin film electrocatalysts and a modified electrolyte membrane capable of operating at up to 95 degrees C, at least for short periods. To meet the 2015 targets, however, the fuel cell systems may need to operate without pressurization at higher temperatures of up to 120 degrees C without the need to humidify the fuel gas and air, along with several other improvements in stack and balance-of-plant components. Our simulations provide quantitative estimates of the various performance and cost parameters of the near-term and the advanced systems that can achieve the targets set for automotive fuel cell system development. Published by Elsevier B.V.