Industrial accidents involving fragment projection were investigated. The analysis of fracture mechanics fundamentals allowed the exploration of the relations between the fracture characteristics and the final event leading to equipment collapse. Reference fragmentation patterns were defined on the basis of the geometrical characteristics of the categories of process vessels that are more frequently involved in fragmentation accidents. Primary scenarios leading to fragment projection were correlated to specific fragmentation patterns. A database reporting a detailed analysis of more than 140 vessel fragmentation events provided the data needed to support and validate the approach. The available data also allowed the calculation of the expected probability of fragment projection following vessel fragmentation, and the probability of the alternative fragmentation patterns with respect to the different accidental scenarios, based on the observed frequencies over the available data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.