An analytical model is developed to predict the residual thermal stresses in a single cell of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), which consists of a thick porous 8 mol% Y2O3 stabilized zirconia/nickel oxide (8YSZ/NiO) anode, a dense 8YSZ electrolyte and a porous lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM) cathode. The simulated stresses in the cell at room temperature, which are resulted from the contraction mismatch of its components, indicate that the major principal stress in the anode is tensile while the electrolyte and cathode are under compressive stresses. The stress in one component decreases with the increase of its thickness when the thicknesses of the other two components are fixed, and the decrease of the tensile stress in the anode will cause the increase of the compressive stresses in both the cathode and the electrolyte, and vice versa. The analysis also reveals that the anode is the part that is most susceptible to fracture since the tensile thermal stress is so high that it reaches to the fracture strength of the anode material. The Weibull statistic is employed to estimate the failure probability of the anode. The simulation results indicate that the anode failure probability decreases with the increase of the anode thickness and the decrease of the electrolyte thickness. To keep the anode failure probability less than 1E-06, the anode thickness should be greater than 0.7 mm for a cell with an electrolyte thickness of 10 mu m and a cathode thickness of 20 mu n. Crown Copyright (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.