화학공학소재연구정보센터
Energy Policy, Vol.38, No.2, 1079-1086, 2010
Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion
This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO2-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO2-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved