Desorption tests, conducted before development drilling, can predict early production rates of coalbed methane wells. In this study, results from 136 desorption tests from 30 coreholes are compared to subsequent production histories of surrounding wells. Coals studied are from the Carboniferous Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama, USA. The investigation indicates that the best predictor for gas production is "gas yield at 120 days, divided by sample depth". This quotient has a higher correlation with actual gas production than other variables examined, including original reserves in-place. Gas content of coal generally increases with depth. However, coal permeability, and hence the recovery factor, tends to decrease with depth. Therefore, coalbed methane exploration should focus on finding the optimal balance between gas yield and depth. Commercially successful wells are characterized by coals with high gas yields at shallow depths. Desorption tests, especially of slowly-desorbing coals, should be run for a minimum of 120 days, or else should be extrapolated to that time if tests are terminated earlier.