Electrical submersible pumps (ESP＇s) are the predominant lift method in the Milne Point held (MPF), Alaska. Each year, approximately 50 ESP failures occur. Analysis shows the three main factors affecting ESP reliability in MPF to be the reservoir, sand control, and whether the ESP is a new completion or a replacement. Also, ESP-failure rate is dynamic, influenced by the delivery of new wells and the time lag between failure and replacement. Analysis results have been incorporated into a computer-based failure simulator that uses Monte Carlo techniques to simulate the failure rates. The simulator is used in a cash-constrained environment as a planning tool to establish changes in rig use, production loss, and ESP replacement strategies.