Journal of Petroleum Technology, Vol.52, No.8, 52-52, 2000
Resolving reservoir uncertainty to create value
Technology application focuses on acquiring knowledge to reduce the uncertainty surrounding large capital investments in E&P. In practice, the industry makes incremental investments that exploit the increasing knowledge base for the asset, such as an exploration lease or a newly discovered field. Reservoir characterization reduces the uncertainty that surrounds development of a field by gathering and interpreting data from many investigative tools. Acquisition of that knowledge cannot be valued readily by traditional discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis. A new financial tool, real-options analysis, estimates the value of acquiring a knowledge base or developing a new technology. A real-options analysis indicates that a maximum-value benefit in reducing reserves' uncertainty is a function of a project's estimated net present value (NPV), with uncertainty; characterization-analysis time; and the cost of delay.